Wednesday, 05 December 2007
Here we are, homeowners in Clay County, St. Johns County, Jacksonville. We have great communities Eagle Harbor, Pace Island, Fleming Island Plantation, Magnolia Point, Julington Creek, and lots of other great places to live. Schools are among the best in the state. SO WHY ARE HOUSES NOT SELLING as they were in 2005-2006? Let me tell you what my opinion is, Real Estate is a market just like stocks and bond and diamonds and gold. It is supply and demand driven.
The Perkins Team sold hundreds of houses from 2004-2006, there were few houses on the market, credit was easy, the news media had spots every night telling the story of all the money investors were making in Real Estate. Then came August 2006, the market shifted and buyers just were not there, the news media was talking doom and gloom. As a result instead of a month of inventory of houses we started heading up, at one point 15 months or more of inventory. Now we had more supply and little demand. Prices began to slip, not crash, just slip.
But unlike stocks or bonds, a homeowner in Orange Park or Fleming Island just can't call his broker and do a trade and walk away. If you had to sell (i.e. a job transfer or other life changing event), you had to sell your house in the market you were in. The only way to get it done was to lower the price and become the best buy on the market.
I study the market daily. I have a good feel for where the market prices homes in Northeast Florida and especially in Orange Park, Fleming Island, St Johns County, and Jacksonville. I listen to the people who follow the economy. Here is a consensus of their thinking. There will be about an 11% drop in the median home price from the shift in the market until the shift at the bottom. Now those are national average numbers, but guess what, those numbers are tracking pretty closely here in Florida. We are about halfway through the 11% drop, and we are down almost 6%. So most of the people who make a living following the market think we should reach the bottom and start to see a better housing market mid-2008 or early 2009.
So what do we do? Remember our buyers here in Florida come from people staying in the area and a big number moving here. About 1,000 new people (net) move to Florida every day. Do the math, that is about a million in the next 3 years. The market will come back. If you are looking to buy a new home, especially a home price higher than the one you live in, make an offer, lock up a good price and move on. You will make money on the house you buy, even if you are taking less for the house sell. In the long run you will be glad you made the move. If you have to sell, get your house looking good and price it to sell. The Perkins Team can help you price it to sell, Just Pick The Perkins.